Predicting the risk of developing long-term complications in takotsubo syndrome


DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.18565/therapy.2023.5.61-70

Evdokimov D.S., Feoktistova V.S., Semenov A.P., Boldueva S.A., Plavinsky S.L.

I.I. Mechnikov North-Western State Medical University of the Ministry of Healthcare of Russia, Saint Petersburg
Abstract. In recent years, the course of the late period of takotsubo syndrome (TS) has been actively studied, since most patients, despite the restoration of the left ventricular (LV) ejection fraction, still have complaints characteristic of chronic heart failure (CHF).
Objective: on the basis of clinical and laboratory-instrumental data, to build models for predicting the risk of complications in the long-term period in patients who have undergone TS.
Material and methods. The study included 60 patients with TS. In the acute period of the disease (7–14 days), a standard clinical and laboratory examination was performed, endothelial function was assessed by peripheral arterial tonometry (PAT) before and after the mental stress test (MST). After 1 year, patients underwent a standard clinical examination, echocardiography using the speckle-tracking technique, blood was taken to determine the level of endothelin-1 (ET-1) and circulating endothelial cells (CEC), PAT before and after MCT. The severity of symptoms of CHF was assessed using a scale for assessing the clinical condition. Algorithms for assessing the risk of complications were built by medical and mathematical modeling using the method of classification trees; multivariate analysis was carried out by binary logistic regression with stepwise inclusion of features.
Results. Most often, TS in the examined patients was provoked by negative stress; there were no cases of the development of the disease against the background of positive experiences. When constructing ROC curves and univariate analysis, predictors of CHF progression and reduced LV deformity after 1 year were indicators reflecting the presence of endothelial dysfunction. Models were constructed to predict the risk of CHF progression (sensitivity 81,1%), low LV deformity parameters (95,5% sensitivity) and death (96,5% sensitivity) 1 year after the onset of TS.
Conclusion. Knowledge of the predictors of CHF progression and death in the long-term period of the disease in patients with TS and the possibility of predicting their development using risk models will allow more targeted selection of therapy after discharge from the hospital.

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About the Autors


Dmitry S. Evdokimov, postgraduate student of the Department of faculty therapy, I.I. Mechnikov North-Western State Medical University of the Ministry of Healthcare of Russia. Address: 195067, Saint Petersburg, 47 Piskarevsky Avenue. E-mail: kasabian244@gmail.com. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3107-1691
Valeria S. Feoktistova, PhD in Medical Sciences, associate professor of the Department of faculty therapy, I.I. Mechnikov North-Western State Medical University of the Ministry of Healthcare of Russia. Address: 195067, Saint Petersburg, 47 Piskarevsky Avenue. E-mail: lerissima@yandex.ru. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4161-3535
Alena P. Semenova, postgraduate student of the Department of faculty therapy, I.I. Mechnikov North-Western State Medical University of the Ministry of Healthcare of Russia. Address: 195067, Saint Petersburg, 47 Piskarevsky Avenue. E-mail: semionova.al@mail.ru. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6386-1612
Svetlana A. Boldueva, MD, professor, head of the Department of faculty therapy, I.I. Mechnikov North-Western State Medical University of the Ministry of Healthcare of Russia. Address: 195067, Saint Petersburg, 47 Piskarevsky Avenue. E-mail: svetlanaboldueva@mail.ru. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1898-084X
Svyatoslav L. Plavinsky , MD, professor of the Department of pedagogy, philosophy and law, I.I. Mechnikov North-Western State Medical University of the Ministry of Healthcare of Russia. Address: 195067, Saint Petersburg, 47 Piskarevsky Avenue. E-mail: s.plavinskij@gmail.com. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-9159-6177


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