Predicting the development of atrial fibrillation using multiple logistic regression


DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.18565/therapy.2021.9.66-74

Nikulina S.Yu., Shishkova K.Yu., Chernova A.A., Schulman V.A.

1) Krasnoyarsk State Medical University named after professor Voino-Yasenetsky of the Ministry of Healthcare of Russia; 2) Federal Siberian Scientific-Research and Clinical Center of FMBA of Russia, Krasnoyarsk
Abstract. In recent decades, the attention of researchers has been focused on the genetic factors of atrial fibrillation (AF) development.
The aim of the research was to assess the possibility of predicting the development of AF, taking into account the genetic predictors of the disease, by means of multiple logistic regression methodic.
Material and methods. The main group of the study consisted of 224 patients with AF (37 patients with primary and 187 patients with secondary AF), the control group included 171 healthy patients. All patients underwent all necessary clinical and instrumental studies to verify the AF diagnosis and the etiological factor of the disease. All participants in the main and control groups underwent a molecular genetic study.
Results. The rare homozygous GG genotype of the SYNPO2L gene was statistically significantly more prevailing in the group of patients with AF comparatively to control group patients, which proves the association of the disease with this genotype. A logistic regression model was built for paroxysmal AF form. The coefficient of determination of this model (R2=0,055) provides a statistically significant explanation for the probability of paroxysmal AF development by the presence of G allele in the genotype by 5,5%. At the same time, the model has a specificity of 93,2% for predicting the absence of paroxysmal AF clinical course and predicts its presence of it with a sensitivity of 13,6%.
Conclusion. Using logistic regression analysis, the predictive significance of the presence of the GG rs10824026 genotype of the SYNPO2L gene for the development of AF, to a greater extent for its paroxysmal form, was confirmed. This correlation is most significant for the primary form of AF in female patients, which is confirmed by the best estimation of the prognostic characteristics of the suitable regression model.
Keywords: chromosome 10, MYOZ1, SYNPO2L, SNP, genetic markers, atrial fibrillation
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About the Autors

Svetlana Yu. Nikulina, MD, professor, head of the Department of faculty therapy with a course of FPE, Krasnoyarsk State Medical University named after professor Voino-Yasenetsky of the Ministry of Healthcare of Russia. Address:660014, Krasnoyarsk, 12 Instrumentalnaya Str.Tel.: +7 (908) 212-53-79. E-mail: nicoulina@mail.ru. ORCID: 0000-0002-6968-7627
Ksenia Yu. Shishkova, postgraduate student of the Department of faculty therapy with a course of FPE, Krasnoyarsk State Medical University named after professor Voino-Yasenetsky of the Ministry of Healthcare of Russia. Address:660014, Krasnoyarsk, 12 Instrumentalnaya Str. Tel.: +7 (913) 517-37-34. E-mail: tadtaeva93@mail.ru. ORCID: 0000-0003-2247-4242
Anna A. Chernova, MD, professor of the Department of faculty therapy with the course of FPE, Krasnoyarsk State Medical University named after professor Voino-Yasenetsky of the Ministry of Healthcare of Russia, head of the Department of science and innovation, Federal Siberian Scientific-Research and Clinical Center of FMBA of Russia. Address: 660014, Krasnoyarsk, 12 Instrumentalnaya Str. Tel.: +7 (991) 543-44-99. E-mail: chernova-krsk@yandex.ru. ORCID: 0000-0003-2977-1792
Vladimir A. Shulman, MD, professor of the Department of faculty therapy with a course of FPE, Krasnoyarsk State Medical University named after professor Voino-Yasenetsky of the Ministry of Healthcare of Russia, head of the Department of science and innovation, Federal Siberian Scientific-Research and Clinical Center of FMBA of Russia. Address: 660014, Krasnoyarsk, 12 Instrumentalnaya Str. Tel.: +7 (391) 263-17-71. E-mail: Shulman36@mail.ru


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