Prediction of the risk of myocardial infarction development in patients with peripheral atherosclerosis in the long term


DOI: https://dx.doi.org/10.18565/therapy.2022.5.39-46

Kobzeva N.D., Martynov A.I., Terentiev V.P.

1) Rostov State Medical University of the Ministry of Healthcare of Russia, Rostov-on-Don; 2) A.I. Yevdokimov Moscow State University of Medicine and Dentistry of the Ministry of Healthcare of Russia
Abstract. Risk stratification in patients with peripheral atherosclerosis is extremely important, since it determines the direction of management tactics for patients with high and very high cardiovascular risk.
Aim: development of a method for predicting the development of myocardial infarction (MI) in patients with peripheral atherosclerosis in the long term.
Material and methods. The study included 519 patients (mean age 60.0±8,7 years) with atherosclerotic lesions in various vascular regions. All patients underwent standard biochemical studies and a set of instrumental studies. The period of prospective follow-up was 36 months.
Results. In the course of binary logistic regression analysis, combinations of factors were identified that demonstrated their statistical significance in relation to the risk of developing MI in the long-term period, namely, «duration of diabetes mellitus, years + history of MI» (p=0,030), «chronic heart failure + duration of diabetes mellitus, years» (p=0,049), «ejection fraction value, % + history of MI» (p=0,0006), «number of affected vascular beds + chronic heart failure» (p <0,001), «number affected vascular pools + MI in anamnesis» (p <0,001) in relation to the point of fatal and non-fatal MI.
Conclusions. Nomograms have been developed for assessing the risk of MI in the long-term period, which can be used in real clinical practice.
Keywords: renal arteries, peripheral atherosclerosis, brachiocephalic arteries, myocardial infarction, coronary arteries, risk factors
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About the Autors

Natalia D. Kobzeva, PhD in Medicine, associate professor of the Department of internal diseases No. 1, Rostov State Medical University of the Ministry of Healthcare of Russia. Address: 344022, Rostov-on-Don, 29 Nakhichevansky Lane. E-mail: kobzeva.nataliya1@gmail.com. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3390-2452
Anatoly I. Martynov, Dr. med. habil., academician of RAS, professor of the Department of hospital therapy No. 1, A.I. Yevdokimov Moscow State University of Medicine and Dentistry of the Ministry of Healthcare of Russia. Address: 127473, Moscow, 20/1 Delegatskaya Str. ORCID: 0000-0002-0783-488X
Vladimir P. Terentiev, Dr. med. habil., professor, head of the Department of internal diseases No. 1, Rostov State Medical University of the Ministry of Healthcare of Russia. Address: 344022, Rostov-on-Don, 29 Nakhichevansky Lane. E-mail: vpterentev@mail.ru. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-3607-5832


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